US defaults on debt by 2027?
1.6 pt (24h)One-OffBonds & TreasuriesMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsEconomia3m
PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 97%-1.6pt
Qualità del mercato
67 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
812 €
Liquidità
2,1K €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
2.7% / 3.8%
Spread
1.1 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
0
Variazione 7g
+1.9 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
5 nov 25, 19:50 UTC31 dic 26, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
- The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.9%-0.7pt9%
- 3.8%+3.0pt8%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 211,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3K €
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-27.0pt50%
- 4.85%-25.5pt41%
- 4.94%-10.0pt30%
+6 altri esiti
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.4%-1.5pt100%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%+5.5pt79%
- Below 4.73%+15.5pt76%
- Below 4.70%+9.0pt59%
+6 altri esiti
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.7% or above99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1K €
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.17% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 2K €
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will NU sell $250M in bonds for the Big Red Rebuild?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US defaults on debt by 2027??
- Polymarket quota No al 97% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US defaults on debt by 2027??
- US defaults on debt by 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato US defaults on debt by 2027??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Dove altro è quotato US defaults on debt by 2027??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Kalshi.