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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Bonds & Treasuries
  3. US defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

0.1% (24h)One-OffBonds & TreasuriesMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsEconomia
PolymarketPolymarketChiusoVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissione

Questo mercato è chiuso e in attesa di una risoluzione confermata.

Probabilità implicita attuale
Sì
Sì 3%
Qualita del mercato

44 / 100

Bassa qualità
Volume 24h

4,5 €

Liquidità

4,4K €

Liquidità media
Bid / Ask

1.6% / 5.3%

Spread

231.3%

Spread ampio
Variazione 7g

-1.9%

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato ieri

Obsoleto
5 nov 25, 19:5031 dic 26, 0:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità
Sì
Sì
3%
No
No
97%

Questo mercato è chiuso. Il trading simulato è disponibile solo sui mercati aperti.

KalshiDisponibile anche su Kalshi

US defaults before 2027?

US defaults before 2027?

6m
Sì
Sì
5%
No
No
95%
24 • Bassa qualitàSpread ampioBassa liquiditàMercato poco profondo
Volume totale9 €
Volume 24h0 €
KalshiKALSHI

Regole

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
  • The resolution source will be official information from the U.S.
  • Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

I dati di confronto sono solo informativi. I prezzi e la liquidità possono variare.

Mercati Correlati

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

0 €
Sì: 13%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

0 €
Sì: 30%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will South Korea issue at least ₩15T in KTBs in July 2026?

Will South Korea issue at least ₩15T in KTBs in July 2026?

0 €
Sì: 54.3%LimitlessLIMITLESS
Manifold Markets

Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?

19,3 €
Sì: 28.7%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

94,5 €
Sì: 2.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

1,1 €
Sì: 22%KalshiKALSHI

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,627.09-2.90%EthereumETH$1,694.43-3.14%SolanaSOL$68.33-4.78%DogecoinDOGE$0.0823-3.10%XRPXRP$1.13-4.52%BNBBNB$574.50-2.56%

Notizie Correlate

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Regole

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
  • The resolution source will be official information from the U.S.
  • Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.