KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 98%
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
19,1K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread strettoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
11 mar 26, 20:00 UTC20 ott 26, 12:29 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketWhen will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?
Manifold MarketsHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Polymarket2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
KalshiRegole
If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:U.S. Treasury / OMB
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 91 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 569,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 359,2K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 16,4K €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Volume totale
- 314,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5K €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026??
- Kalshi quota No al 98% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026??
- U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 20 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.