KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 97%
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
1K €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
1.1% / 3.0%
Spread
1.9 pt
Spread strettoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
12 mar 26, 14:00 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US defaults before 2030?
KalshiUS defaults before 2029?
KalshiUS defaults before 2028?
KalshiUS defaults on debt held by China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsAir Baltic defaults on 2024 14.5% EUR bond before August 14, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:U.S. Department of the Treasury
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
Bonds & Treasuries
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.9%-0.7pt9%
- 3.8%+3.0pt8%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 211,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3K €
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-27.0pt50%
- 4.85%-25.5pt41%
- 4.94%-10.0pt30%
+6 altri esiti
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.4%-1.5pt100%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%+5.5pt79%
- Below 4.73%+15.5pt76%
- Below 4.70%+9.0pt59%
+6 altri esiti
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.7% or above99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1K €
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.17% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 2K €
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will NU sell $250M in bonds for the Big Red Rebuild?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- US defaults on debt by 2027?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US defaults before 2027??
- Kalshi quota No al 97% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US defaults before 2027??
- US defaults before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato US defaults before 2027??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Dove altro è quotato US defaults before 2027??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Polymarket.