Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 93.6%
Previsori
101
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto24 ago 24, 22:15 UTC25 ago 27, 20:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Pavel Durov no longer CEO of Telegram by January 1st, 2028
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PolymarketWill Ekrem Imamoglu leave jail by the end of 2026?
FutuurReckless Ben in jail by December 31?
PolymarketRegole
Arrest and indictment of Pavel Durov (Wikipedia)
- Resolves Yes if Pavel Durov is actually going to prison as a result of this whole situation.
- Resolves No once the charges are dropped, or if there is a non-prison sentence, or if there is some other conclusion to all of this.
- Also resolves No if three years from now there is no meaningful conclusion to this story.
- Update (Aug 26): Regarding the exact definition of “go to jail” in this market - Pavel Durov has to be sentenced to no less than three months of actual prison (and start serving it), or has to spend 1.5 times as that (4.5 months) awaiting his trial in something generally resembling regular European/American prison, for this market to be resolved Yes.
- A sufficiently strong combination of both, or anything else resembling such incarceration, also will be a Yes.
Mercati aperti
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+11.5pt65%
- Yes-11.5pt35%
- Volume totale
- 347,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,4K €
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume totale
- 9,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 6,8K €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026-0.1pt5%
- Volume totale
- 498,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,1K €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+1.5pt42.6%
- 60++1.5pt38.6%
- 20–40+1.4pt10.9%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-7.5pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 94% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail??
- Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail? dovrebbe risolversi il 25 agosto 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Arrest and indictment of Pavel Durov (Wikipedia)