Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale< 1 year (includes 0 time) 90.3%In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo28 giu 23, 01:24 UTC1 gen 27, 02:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Contingent on Trump winning the election, will any of the DAs or judges currently trying him go to jail?
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KalshiWill Trump go a full week without speaking live on camera before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?
Manifold MarketsHow long will Trump's next Press Secretary last?
KalshiRegole
Based on time sentenced.
- Resolves on initial sentencing announcement (all counts combined), without waiting for appeals.
- Resolves to < 1 year if not sentenced by the end of 2026.
- Resolves to the lowest valid bracket.
- So a sentence of 9 years would resolve to < 10.
- A sentence of home detention without actual jail time would fall under the [< 1 year] option.
