Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?
One-OffScienza13aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 75%
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto18 mar 26, 23:01 UTC31 dic 39, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the annual average strength of the AMOC fall below 8 Sverdrups for any calendar year through 2030?
ForecastExWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Human brain preservation company Nectome is looking to start accepting patients soon.
- Its founder, Aurelia Song claimed: "I think we will be getting to thousands of preservations per year in a few years"
- (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9xfgJHvs6M55kABD/less-dead?commentId=HqWWna92bECLJDiCQ)
- "I think Nectome's business case is very strong and that preservation is going to become a new global tradition soon. ... [Within the next decade] I think 0.1% - 1% of people will seriously consider preservation, and Nectome will be very successful."
- (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9xfgJHvs6M55kABD/less-dead?commentId=qKDXYFwovwmxdr4Kk)
- This market resolves YES iff Nectome preserves over a thousand patients in a single calendar year.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 211K €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 104,9K €
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 75% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040??
- Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2039.
- Come viene liquidato Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Human brain preservation company Nectome is looking to start accepting patients soon.