Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?
GeopoliticaOne-OffMedio Oriente4m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 65.9%
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 48 minuti fa
In ritardo16 mar 26, 21:29 UTC16 mar 27, 21:28 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran exhausts its ballistic missile inventory before the coalition (US, Israel, and Gulf state allies) exhausts its air defense interceptor stockpile.
- This market resolves NO if the coalition exhausts its interceptor stockpile first.
- Resolution will be determined by daily launch count, interception rates, and official statements from the US Department of Defense, Israeli Ministry of Defense, or credible military intelligence assessments published by recognized defense analysis organizations (CSIS, Institute for the Study of War, etc.).
- The resolution date is March 16, 2027 (one year from market creation), but may be postponed or be brought forward, depending on how the war goes.
- Missile count: weekly average of 3 per day or lower, so long as iran is incapable of consistently hitting targets everyday, and there's no upward tend.