Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 78.2%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto4 apr 26, 09:42 UTC31 dic 27, 10:38 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketUS charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
LimitlessStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if the conflict ends, but ships still pay fees to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The payments should be a part of what I deem to be a normalized process in the post-war period for this to resolve YES.
- To determine if the conflict ends, I will use the resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by or of a similar market with expiration dates beyond December 31st.
- If there is no such substantially similar market, and the existing Polymarket answers resolve to NO, I will use a consensus of credible reporting to determine roughly when the conflict ends.
- [link preview]
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 512,6K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 9,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 266,5K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 56,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 170,4K €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 78% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist??
- Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if the conflict ends, but ships still pay fees to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.