Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeCyberattack ($1M+) 47%In testa tra 15 esiti
Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 minuti fa
17 lug 26, 6:0717 ago 27, 6:07
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Cyberattack ($1M+)47%
Trend del volume
$42117 lug7g di dati28 lug
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I've seen a lot of concern about the release of Kimi K3, an open source model said to be comparable to Claude Mythos/Fable or GPT 5.6 Sol.
- Will these concerns be borne out?
- For the purposes of this market, "mass murder" includes biological or conventional terrorist attacks, including mass shootings, but not conventional military or genocide campaigns where Kimi is used in planning or targeting.
- I'll take a broad view of causation; any attack in which Kimi K3 (including a fine-tune, abliteration, or other modified version) is proven to have been used for planning or execution in any substantial form will be considered a "result", even if the information was available in other ways.
- To simplify resolution, if nobody presents compelling evidence for YES within 1 year, this market will resolve NO.