Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeCyberattack ($1M+) 42.6%In testa tra 15 esiti
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto17 lug 26, 06:07 UTC17 ago 27, 06:07 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which of the following things will happen in 2026 as a result of the US Attack on Venezuela?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen as a result of the Delaney Hall protests?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen as a result of the shooting of Renee Good in the next 2 Years?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
PolymarketWill 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsRegole
I've seen a lot of concern about the release of Kimi K3, an open source model said to be comparable to Claude Mythos/Fable or GPT 5.6 Sol.
- Will these concerns be borne out?
- For the purposes of this market, "mass murder" includes biological or conventional terrorist attacks, including mass shootings, but not conventional military or genocide campaigns where Kimi is used in planning or targeting.
- I'll take a broad view of causation; any attack in which Kimi K3 (including a fine-tune, abliteration, or other modified version) is proven to have been used for planning or execution in any substantial form will be considered a "result", even if the information was available in other ways.
- To simplify resolution, if nobody presents compelling evidence for YES within 1 year, this market will resolve NO.