Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 69.3%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 39 minuti fa
10 mag 26, 18:08 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will >97% of all jobs be fully automated before the year 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a plumbing company that has fully automated services by 2080?
Manifold MarketsWhen will housekeeping be fully automated with 99% success rate per house service?
Manifold MarketsFully automated plate racking before 2027?
Manifold MarketsChina provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegole
by near-fully automated, i mean <=5 people are even plausibly making important decisions (like, everyone else could go on vacation forever and it would not slow the company down at all).
- frontier lab means has the best models or pretty close to the best models in 2029. right now, openai, anthropic, deepmind definitely count; xai, meta don't yet but plausibly could soonish.
- resolves based on the state of the world on Jan 1 2029, though it may take a while to resolve because the info may be private.
- resolves NA if WWIII happens. resolves as usual if a local Taiwan war happens without escalating to WWIII. resolves NO if there are no frontier AI labs anymore because the AI industry collapsed.
- Update 2026-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important decisions means anything affecting the speed at which the lab achieves AGI, including relatively 'micro' decisions (e.g. which experiments to run).
- A person counts as plausibly making important decisions unless there is strong evidence their decision-making adds no value over an AI model
