Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028?
PoliticaOne-OffIAUS PoliticsChinaTecnologiaGeopolitica1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 74.5%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto13 set 26, 03:26 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
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PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point between September 13, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, a formal, public agreement is announced that specifically addresses frontier AI safety, governance, capability pacing, security, or military application between:
- The government of the United States and the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC), OR
- One or more major American AI companies (defined as US-headquartered frontier AI developers, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, and Microsoft) and either the PRC government or major Chinese AI companies (e.g., Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, ByteDance, DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, MiniMax).
- Qualifying Agreements:
- Must be a dedicated bilateral or plurilateral agreement, memorandum of understanding (MoU), joint declaration, or treaty.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 75% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028??
- Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria