Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?
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Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 81.9%
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Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto4 mag 26, 20:22 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any China-domestic AI accelerator (Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, Biren, Moore Threads, Iluvatar, etc.) is reported to achieve ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 effective performance on a publicly disclosed benchmark.
- Acceptable benchmarks for resolution:
- MLPerf (mlperf.org) — official submitted results
- LLM training/inference benchmarks published by Epoch AI, CSET, or peer-reviewed academic papers (arXiv, conference proceedings)
- Vendor-published technical specifications + neutral third-party verification (e.g., research lab reproducing the result)
- "Effective performance" means application-level throughput on standardized AI workloads (e.g., GPT-class training tokens/sec, Llama-class inference tokens/sec, ResNet-class images/sec), not just raw FLOP/s peak.
