Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 91.7%
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9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 minuto fa
27 set 26, 11:57 UTC16 ott 26, 07:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?
KalshiNext Claude Sonnet released on?
PolymarketNext Claude Sonnet released by which date?
PolymarketClaude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWill a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolves YES if Anthropic makes a model officially named Claude Sonnet 5.5 (or any Claude Sonnet model with a higher version number, e.g. Sonnet 5.6 or Sonnet 6) generally available on or before October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM Pacific.
- Generally available means publicly usable by ordinary paying customers through at least one official channel: the Claude API, claude.ai, or an official cloud partner listing (Amazon Bedrock, Google Vertex AI).
- A partner-only preview, an early-access program, or a leaked model string does not count.
- Resolution source: Anthropic's release notes (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/release-notes/overview) or an announcement on https://www.anthropic.com/news.
- The release date is the date of the official announcement or release-notes entry.
- Resolves NO if no such release happens by the deadline.