Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 74.7%
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8
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto19 set 23, 15:12 UTC2 gen 31, 07:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027
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Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRegole
It should be mostly undamaged.
- Either captured, or taken after forced landing, or similar.
- Something like the Hainan incident would count. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident
- Even if the pilot has a chance to manually destroy sensitive aspects of the plane before being taken, as long as the exterior is mostly intact it would count.
- Even a crash which the pilot walks away from would likely result in a plane in good enough condition to count.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 55,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8K €
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 75% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030?
- Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030 dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: It should be mostly undamaged.