Previsione della comunità attuale
AGI 76.6%
Previsori
32
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+22.4 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
ObsoletoTrend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will commercial nuclear fusion exist in April of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]
Manifold MarketsWhen will nuclear fusion be achieved?
KalshiWill Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves when either the named outcome reaches 1% of electricity globally, or when artificial general intelligence is reached.
- If none of these ever get achieved by humanity, this never resolves.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 267,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 95,6K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.2%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+4.5pt65%
- November 30,-7.0pt44%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 272K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+8.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 211,1K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.4pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 altri esiti
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first??
- Manifold Markets quota AGI al 77% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves when either the named outcome reaches 1% of electricity globally, or when artificial general intelligence is reached.