Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeOther 47.3%-9.7ptIn testa tra 25 esiti
Previsori
116
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+40.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
19 set 26, 23:42 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
0.5%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Who will Trump name as AI czar?
KalshiTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
LimitlessSOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President by September 30?
PolymarketWill "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRegole
[image]Resolves upon announcement by Trump or his Admin, resolution does not require they actually begin work on the job.
- If Trump announces multiple individuals to co-lead the role, the market will resolve proportionally among those named.
- If no official announcement is made by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "the named outcome".
- The primary sources of truth will be official White House statements, the named outcome's verified Truth Social posts, or consensus reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg, The New York Times).
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,9 Mln €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 156,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1K €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 altri esiti
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar??
- Manifold Markets quota Other al 47% al 21 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar??
- Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: [image]Resolves upon announcement by Trump or his Admin, resolution does not require they actually begin work on the job.