Previsione della comunità attuale
No 75.4%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
9 ott 25, 23:03 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
Manifold MarketsSecond-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI Agent end of October?
PolymarketSecond-best AI Agent Lab end of November?
PolymarketMajor company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,9 Mln €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 156,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1K €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 altri esiti
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 75% al 21 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.?
- SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B. dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.