Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeInsurgencies in Iran 100%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
83
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto25 feb 26, 16:47 UTC31 gen 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHot war between the US and China by the end of 2026?
FutuurNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Any number of these conflicts might resolve Yes this year, once they enter the Minor Wars or Major Wars categories on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts
- I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict.
- Unlike previous versions of this market, we are now using article titles for existing civil conflicts, and are only using country pairings for conflicts not already on the page.
- If a new conflict article or country pairing gets folded into an existing article, the question will only resolve Yes if the encompassing article is both over the threshold AND the beligerents from the country pairing fought in the current year.
- This means that changes in Wiki policy or recategorization of past articles should not count by themselves for this market.