Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Other 31.7%In testa tra 8 esiti
Other 31.7%Previsori
20
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-3.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto18 gen 24, 14:27 UTC1 gen 50, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which country will lose territory to a newly founded country by 2050? [add responses]
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PolymarketRegole
For the purposes of this market, I will consider countries which are members of the OSCE.
- This is meant to be a proxy of "European country", but note that it also includes several (post-Soviet) countries which are geographically in Asia.
- I will not count the US and Canada.
- ! Any changes which result directly from the current Russia-Ukraine war do not count !
- I will only count significant changes; I don't think there will be many opportunities for ambiguity, but, to give a formal criterion, the border change should affect at least 1.000 people.
- This is meant to rule out minor adjustments, e.g. to a border along a river which changes its course.