Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
IAOne-Off13a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeAutonomous AI math researcher 93.5%In testa tra 3 esiti
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto19 set 25, 19:41 UTC1 gen 40, 20:25 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first
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Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
This market resolves to the event which happens first:
- Event 1: A quantum computer is capable of factoring RSA-2048 (the number has to be publicly factored, and the demonstration has to be verified).
- Event 2: An AI model is capable of autonomously generating annals-quality math papers for under 100K$, as specified in this market: https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann
- If neither of the events happen by January 1, 2040, the market resolves to the third option.
- Update 2026-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Although the linked market by Tamay Besiroglu resolved early due to a concession, this market will remain open until the criteria for one of the events fully holds.
- Update 2026-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To satisfy Event 2, the AI must be capable of autonomously writing readable, well-explained papers.
