Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeOpenAI 94.7%+59.0ptIn testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+74.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 minuti fa
5 set 26, 21:51 UTC31 dic 34, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI lab will be the first to solve a millennium prize problem?
Manifold MarketsThird-best AI Lab end of September?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves to the company whose AI model is credited with doing the majority of the work in the first solution to any of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.
- Resolves on Clay Institute announcement or earlier on broad expert consensus that the proof is correct.
- Resolves N/A if no AI-led solution by end of 2034.
- If a claimed solution is under serious review at close, the market will be extended until it's confirmed or rejected.
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem??
- Manifold Markets quota OpenAI al 95% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem??
- Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2034.
- Come viene liquidato Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves to the company whose AI model is credited with doing the majority of the work in the first solution to any of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.