Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2029 21.3%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
24
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 19 ore fa
Obsoleto29 ott 23, 00:33 UTC5 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
Trend
0%
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent)
Manifold MarketsWill the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
KalshiUS x China Military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Each year resolves:
- YES if the USA and China were at war at any point in that year.
- NO at the end of that year otherwise.
- I won't bet.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 55,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8K €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent)?
- Manifold Markets quota 2029 al 21% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent)?
- When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent) dovrebbe risolversi il 5 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Each year resolves: