Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore 2027-06-01 92.3%+1.4ptIn testa tra 38 esiti
Previsori
73
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+1.4 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
15 mar 24, 14:03 UTC1 gen 28, 22:59 UTC
Trend
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
KalshiWhen will Starship launch from Florida for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessRegole
The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit.
- It could be a Starlink satellite, a commercial satellite from another company, or a scientific satellite even if it is launched pro bono.
- Mass simulator or meme payloads like Elon's car do not count.
- The payload should be deployed into the desired initial orbit (or an orbit close enough that it could be corrected by the satellite itself).
- The market will resolve even if the satellite itself malfunctions after the deployment.
- I do not bet on my own questions.
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.5pt88%
- OpenAI-1.4pt10%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 112,2K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No53.8%
- Yes46.2%
- Volume totale
- 138,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 88K €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 202754%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 877,5K €
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- September 30+2.9pt90%
- Successful splash down?-2.0pt84%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.7pt59.6%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.4%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-3.5pt72.8%
- OpenAI+4.8pt16.5%
- Google-0.5pt7.8%
+18 altri esiti
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will Starship first launch with useful payload??
- Manifold Markets quota Before 2027-06-01 al 92% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will Starship first launch with useful payload??
- When will Starship first launch with useful payload? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato When will Starship first launch with useful payload??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit.