Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeJul-Dec 2026 43.7%-7.1ptIn testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-8.6 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 minuti fa
25 set 25, 22:16 UTC25 set 26, 22:14 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will OpenAI release a new model before October?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketRegole
Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Release can be to a limited group (e.g., a closed beta), not only a public launch.
- Must be a real, new model by SSI — not a white‑labeled/rebranded external LLM.
- Requires third‑party confirmation of the model’s existence and that it is new.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,9 Mln €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 156,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1K €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 altri esiti
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will SSI release their first model??
- Manifold Markets quota Jul-Dec 2026 al 44% al 21 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will SSI release their first model??
- When will SSI release their first model? dovrebbe risolversi il 25 settembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato When will SSI release their first model??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Release can be to a limited group (e.g., a closed beta), not only a public launch.