Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2026 66.8%-2.9ptIn testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
33
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+11.3 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
13 apr 25, 13:37 UTC1 gen 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake.
- When will SSI launch its first product?
- For the purpose of this market, "product" means a paid product based on an AI foundation model, e.g. a chatbot, model API, or "wrapper app".
- This is meant to exclude minor, miscellaneous sources of revenue.
- Maybe this will create edge cases but I don't want to commit to resolving Yes the first year SSI has revenue >$0.
- Update 2025-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Product Scope Update:
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.5pt85%
- December 15,-5.5pt85%
- November 30,-10.5pt82%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 55,6K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68%
- ChatGPT+0.8pt16.5%
- Grok+1.0pt6.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,4 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt92%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-9.0pt83%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-0.9pt2%
- <500B-0.2pt0%
+4 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude91.6%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 71,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 34,8K €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-10.5pt52%
+12 altri esiti
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Most popular AI this week
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 7–13
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product??
- Manifold Markets quota 2026 al 67% al 13 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product??
- When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake.