When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
13.0 pt (24h)IA4mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNot before 2030 68.5%+13.0ptIn testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+13.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
25 mar 24, 3:572 gen 27, 7:59
Trend
Regole
Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 90% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?
- This market resolves to the period of time in which an eligible market first stays above 90%, not the period of time that the market predicts AGI to be announced.
- This means that if a real money market in 2025 expects OpenAI to announce AGI in 2027, this market resolves to the option "the named outcome"
- Eligible markets are listed at the bottom of this market description, and more markets will be added as they are created and receive similar amounts of real money trading volume.
- To resolve this Manifold market, an eligible real money market must have limit orders keeping the price above 90% for at least 30 days, with the displayed price never dropping below 90% for more than 24 continuous hours.
- Note: These criteria are still in draft form, and may be updated to better match the spirit of the question.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month??
- Manifold Markets quota Not before 2030 al 69% al 21 agosto 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month??
- When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 90% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?