Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term??

Manifold Markets quota No al 80% al 27 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term??

Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 80%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 5 ore fa

Obsoleto

6 apr 25, 22:23 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolves a YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has attempted to use AGI to stay in power after the end of his second term.

This attempt must occur before January 1st 2030 in order for this question to resolve as YES.
This market does not resolve before January 1st 2031.
Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - AGI Definition: Follow the definition provided in this question.
Minimum Compute Requirement: The attempt must involve at least 100 kWh of inference compute using an AGI-class model.