Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 83.3%
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto6 apr 25, 22:23 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Xi stay on power by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
Manifold MarketsTrumps Power After His Second Term?
Manifold MarketsTrump To Serve Second Term In Full
SmarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiRegole
Resolves a YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has attempted to use AGI to stay in power after the end of his second term.
- This attempt must occur before January 1st 2030 in order for this question to resolve as YES.
- This market does not resolve before January 1st 2031.
- Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - AGI Definition: Follow the definition provided in this question.
- Minimum Compute Requirement: The attempt must involve at least 100 kWh of inference compute using an AGI-class model.
Mercati aperti
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7K €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 altri esiti
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume totale
- 24,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7K €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 54,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3K €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 83% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term??
- Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves a YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has attempted to use AGI to stay in power after the end of his second term.