What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]
IAManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeRuns entirely on silicon-based non-quantum machines 93.3%In testa tra 23 esiti
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37
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto24 apr 24, 12:58 UTC22 mar 50, 22:59 UTC
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KalshiRegole
"First AGI" refers to the initial publicly acknowledged AI that surpasses the Longbets Turing test and becomes accessible to everyone (in at least 3 countries), prompting the resolution of the "AGI When?" market of the Manifold AI countdown (if not yet resolved).
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708)Resolution Criteria:
- Multiple responses can be resolved as YES.
- Additional responses can be submitted.
- If the first AI that meets these criteria is classified as ASI rather than just AGI, it will still qualify under this market.
- An AI that has passed the Longbets Turing test but is not publicly accessible will not be considered the "first." It only counts as the "first" when it becomes accessible to everyone.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume totale
- 225,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 157K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 348,3K €
- Volume 24h
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- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]?
- Manifold Markets quota Runs entirely on silicon-based non-quantum machines al 93% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]?
- What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE] dovrebbe risolversi il 22 marzo 2050.
- Come viene liquidato What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: "First AGI" refers to the initial publicly acknowledged AI that surpasses the Longbets Turing test and becomes accessible to everyone (in at least 3 countries), prompting the resolution of the "AGI When?" market of the Manifold AI countdown (if not yet resolved).