4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.
One-OffIA3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 60%
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26
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binary
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Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
28 dic 25, 11:25 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2026".
- For the 2025 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
- You can find all the markets under the tag [2026 Forbes AI predictions].
- Note that I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2026's predictions, even if I or others disagree with his decision.
- I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
- Coming into 2025, expectations about AI’s trajectory and the timeline to artificial general intelligence were sky-high.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume totale
- 225,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 157K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 348,3K €
- Volume 24h
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per 4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 60% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve 4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.?
- 4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common. dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato 4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2026".