What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?
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Dati al 11 giu 2026, 13:07 UTC · criterio pm-quality-2
Previsione della comunità attualeLess than 40% 2.1%In testa tra 7 esiti
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Aggiornato 44 giorni fa
Obsoleto10 giu 26, 11:0131 dic 30, 23:59
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Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).
- If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
- Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
- Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
- How phone and assistant usage counts
- The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.