Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeIt will be released by January 2027 100%In testa tra 9 esiti
Previsori
42
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+24.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto25 mar 26, 18:11 UTC31 dic 26, 19:10 UTC
Trend
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWhich companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
KalshiWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
PolymarketRegole
Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".
- The market is primarily intended to let people bet on a leaked codename, and may not necessarily close/resolve.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many or all of the sub-questions in this market may never resolve if sufficient evidence does not emerge to confirm which model is "Spud" or its properties.
Mercati aperti
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+9.0pt80.2%
- Yes-9.0pt19.8%
- Volume totale
- 15,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 Mln €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-5.0pt53%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-11.0pt53%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+15.0pt39%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.0pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Jacky Rosen+0.5pt38%
- Kirsten Gillibrand+9.0pt37%
- Ruben Gallego-14.5pt35%
+12 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 50-7.0pt54%
- Above 55-22.0pt42%
- Above 58-8.0pt38%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for Clarity Act cloture?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model??
- Manifold Markets quota It will be released by January 2027 al 100% al 15 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model??
- What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".