Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 93%
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto20 gen 26, 16:30 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Manifold MarketsChina-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026
Manifold MarketsChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
LimitlessRegole
Resolves the same as this market on Polymarket:
- https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-denmark-military-clash-before-2027
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Denmark between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 512,6K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 9,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 266,5K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 56,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 170,4K €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US x Denmark Military clash before 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 93% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US x Denmark Military clash before 2027??
- US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato US x Denmark Military clash before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves the same as this market on Polymarket:
- Dove altro è quotato US x Denmark Military clash before 2027??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Polymarket.