Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 06:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
No 71.5%
Previsori
7
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto23 apr 26, 16:55 UTC20 apr 50, 16:51 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
Manifold MarketsGerman Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiRegole
German Parliament (German Bundestag):
- The next new party (i.e., not the re-entry of an existing party such as the FDP, nor the splitting of a party already represented in the Bundestag into newly named subgroups) to enter the Bundestag will be an Islamic party.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if the next political party to enter the German Bundestag (German federal parliament) that was not previously represented in the current legislative period is primarily based on Islamic principles or explicitly identifies as an Islamic party.
- For the purposes of this market:
- "Entering the Bundestag" means gaining at least one seat in the Bundestag following a federal election or by-election.