Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 71.4%
Sì 71.4%Previsori
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto5 giu 24, 01:47 UTC1 gen 28, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner claims:
- In 2027, a leading AI lab will be able to train a GPT-4-level model in a minute.
- Resolves YES if by the end of 2027, a credible claim is made that:
- Someone trained a GPT-4-level model in a minute.
- or 1440 GPT-4-level models in a day, to account for parallelism
- GPT-4-level will be evaluated using the same benchmarks as in the GPT-4 Technical Report Table 2.