Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBetween 5e25 FLOP and 1.5e26 FLOP 75.5%+18.3ptIn testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+18.3 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto10 dic 23, 20:17 UTC1 gen 27, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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This resolves as the bucket that contains the number of floating point operations (FLOP) used to train GPT-5
- FLOP may be performed at any precision (INT8, FP16, etc.)
- This resolves on the basis of the numbers reported by OpenAI, and, if they don't report this, on the basis of the first credible estimates reported in this database (details about the database may be found here)
- If GPT-5 is not released by EOY, 2027, this resolves ambiguously
- If the estimate is exactly on the edge of each range, we will resolve it as the largest of the two options