Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: 2026 (97.6%)
Risolto: 27 ott 2026, 15:06
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Esito Vincente
2026
A 7 giorni
—
A 24 ore
—
Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 27 ott 2026, 19:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Cronologia delle Probabilità
20250.6%
202697.6%
20270.7%
20280.6%
20290.4%
Vinta
Persa
Persa
Persa
Persa
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.
- Because GPQA questions are publicly released, leaderboard results come from independent community test harnesses (e.g., Vellum AI, LLM-Stats, xAI livestreams).
- The best-known AI score today (July 2025) is 88.4%
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to the first year in which ALL the following conditions hold:
- Score threshold – A single fully-autonomous system achieves ≥ 95% average accuracy on the standard 448-question GPQA.