Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2026 96.9%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+6.3 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto13 lug 25, 22:10 UTC1 gen 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.
- Because GPQA questions are publicly released, leaderboard results come from independent community test harnesses (e.g., Vellum AI, LLM-Stats, xAI livestreams).
- The best-known AI score today (July 2025) is 88.4%
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to the first year in which ALL the following conditions hold:
- Score threshold – A single fully-autonomous system achieves ≥ 95% average accuracy on the standard 448-question GPQA.
Mercati aperti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark??
- Manifold Markets quota 2026 al 97% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark??
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.