In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
One-OffIATecnologia2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2026 93.6%In testa tra 8 esiti
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
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Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto7 lug 25, 07:13 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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0.5%
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PolymarketRegole
SWE-bench Verified is a 500-task, human-vetted slice of the SWE-bench dataset that removes ambiguous or unsolvable issues.
- Each task corresponds to a real GitHub bug-fix; success is measured only by whether the submitted patch makes all repository tests pass.
- Reaching 95 % would imply an agent that can reliably read unfamiliar codebases, localise bugs, implement multi-file patches, and satisfy rigorous unit tests—approaching or surpassing strong human-engineer performance on day-to-day bug-fixing.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the year-bracket in which a fully automated AI system first records an average accuracy of 95 % or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark.
- Verification – The claim must be confirmed by either
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark??
- Manifold Markets quota 2026 al 94% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark??
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: SWE-bench Verified is a 500-task, human-vetted slice of the SWE-bench dataset that removes ambiguous or unsolvable issues.