Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
One-OffIATecnologiaScienza3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 99%
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16
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto29 dic 24, 08:34 UTC31 dic 29, 07:59 UTC
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We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.
- The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract questions in algebraic geometry and category theory.
- Solving a typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the upper end questions, multiple days.
- FrontierMath uses new, unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination.
- Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems, revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of the mathematical community.
- As AI systems advance toward expert-level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous testbed that quantifies their progress.
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- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 99% al 8 settembre 2026.
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- Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.
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- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.