In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?
17.2 pt (24h)IAOne-Off13aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2026-2027 97.6%+17.2ptIn testa tra 7 esiti
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15
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Variazione 7g
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Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
21 giu 25, 5:301 gen 40, 23:59
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Regole
We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.
- The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract questions in algebraic geometry and category theory.
- Solving a typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the upper end questions, multiple days.
- FrontierMath uses new, unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination.
- Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems, revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of the mathematical community.
- As AI systems advance toward expert-level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous testbed that quantifies their progress.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark??
- Manifold Markets quota 2026-2027 al 98% al 4 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark??
- In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2040.
- Come viene liquidato In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.