Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2027 62.3%In testa tra 8 esiti
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto13 lug 25, 18:02 UTC1 gen 33, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
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PolymarketRegole
The GSO (Global Software Optimization) benchmark tests whether large-language-model agents can act like real performance engineers.
- It extracts 102 optimisation tasks from the commit histories of 10 production code-bases spanning C, C++, Rust, Go, Java, and Python.
- For each task the agent receives the full repo, a correctness test-suite, and a runtime profiler, then must submit a single patch that (i) keeps all tests green and (ii) reaches ≥ 95 % of the speed-up achieved by the human expert commit.
- The headline metric, Opt @ 1, is simply the fraction of tasks cleared on the very first try; no retries, no cherry-picking.
- All patches are rebuilt and timed in a sandbox so scores are reproducible and publicly displayed on the GSO leaderboard.
- State of play (July 2025)
Mercati aperti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark??
- Manifold Markets quota 2027 al 62% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark??
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2033.
- Come viene liquidato In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The GSO (Global Software Optimization) benchmark tests whether large-language-model agents can act like real performance engineers.