Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale🇮🇷 Iran 78.4%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
41
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto4 mar 26, 12:37 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRegole
If there is a nuclear detonation in 2026, resolves YES to all countries listed that detonate nuclear weapons in 2026, and NO to all countries that didn't.
- Otherwise, all options resolve N/A. Update 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Nuclear tests (non-combat detonations) count toward resolution, not just wartime use.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 55,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8K €
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- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who??
- Manifold Markets quota 🇮🇷 Iran al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who??
- If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: If there is a nuclear detonation in 2026, resolves YES to all countries listed that detonate nuclear weapons in 2026, and NO to all countries that didn't.