Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 04:15 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale6 - 100 75%In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
39
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto23 feb 26, 18:37 UTC31 dic 26, 18:25 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the total number of American citizens and military personnel killed by Iran by the end of 2026 conditional on a US military (kinetic) strike on Iranian territory.
- The count includes deaths from Iranian military, IRGC and any units mentioned here.
- Deaths from indirect consequences (e.g., economic disruption) do not count.
- Deaths by terror attacks count only if Iran takes full responsibility.
- If no US strike on Iran occurs by the end of 2026, the market resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on reliable sources as defined by Wikipedia.