How much did the 2025/06/21 U.S. strikes on Iran delay the nuclear weapon program?
4.2 pt (24h)Geopolitica2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale>3 months 81.3%+4.2ptIn testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+4.2 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 minuti fa
22 giu 25, 18:14 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran, how many Americans will Iran kill?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegole
On June 21, 2025, the United States completed air strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
- While the US claims the sites were completely destroyed, Iran claims impact was minimal.
- This question asks: how many more months away from a nuclear weapon is the Islamic Republic?
- This question will resolve using estimates produced by international governing bodies, such as the IAEA.
- These estimates may not be available soon, and the question will extend until a firm estimate is produced by an international agency.