Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBecause a human directed it to do so 62.2%In testa tra 20 esiti
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto25 lug 26, 09:52 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Market is extended until an AI disaster event occurs.
- This market only pertains to the first event of its kind.
- 1,000 deaths need to be somewhat traceable to an event initiated/decided by an AI, or humans relying on an AI decisionmaking process.
- If an AI decisionmaker had decided to cut USAID, then the humans stopped doing the things associated with USAID, that would have counted, for example.
- Similarly, if an AI causes an outage which causes car crashes, that would count, even if it were indirect (i.e. all traffic lights in the world are converted to the same AI system, that system fails, and 1000 people die at intersections)
- Resolution criteria
