Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 95.7%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto18 nov 25, 20:23 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketOpus 5.2 released in September?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.
- Alternatively, if 2 or more of these 3 frontier labs require the mobile app user to keep the app open while the model is reasoning about an answer, or else it won't complete, then this market resolves NO.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 269,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 199,9K €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,3 Mln €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 4,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 107,5K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,3 Mln €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 85K €
- Volume 24h
- 65,3K €
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 95.7% al 22 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026??
- Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 novembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.