Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeIncrease 76.4%In testa tra 3 esiti
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-0.6 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 20 ore fa
Obsoleto4 set 26, 17:23 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Regole
This market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate from its level immediately before the October 2026 FOMC meeting.
- The outcome is determined by the net basis-point change announced in the official March FOMC statement.
- If the Fed changes the rate by an amount not matching a displayed option, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 bps for resolution (e.g., a 12.5 bps move is treated as 25 bps).
- Resolution Sources:
- The official FOMC statement for the September2026 meeting:
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
- Disponibile anche su Polymarket — Fed Decision in December? · 25 bps increase 76%
- Disponibile anche su Kalshi — Fed decision in Dec 2026? · Hike 25bps 71%
- Disponibile anche su Gemini — Fed decision in December? · Hike 25bps 67%
- Disponibile anche su Robinhood (Rothera) — Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026) · H 25 68%
