Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 79.9%
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto28 lug 23, 08:54 UTC1 gen 43, 21:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill the fast-growth side win the benjaminmoll growth bet?
Manifold MarketsWill "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
Manifold MarketsWill Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?
KalshiWill the S&P finish positive this year?
KalshiRegole
Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.
- Ted thinks there’s very little chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.
- On Twitter, they agreed to a bet.
- Tweet thread.
- Economist Bryan Caplan says it's very unlikely, because "How is Gross World Product supposed to more than double in a year in a world where you have to wait a decade just to assemble the right building permits?"
- By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,9 Mln €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 156,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1K €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 altri esiti
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Explosive growth bet?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 80% al 21 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Explosive growth bet?
- Explosive growth bet dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2043.
- Come viene liquidato Explosive growth bet?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.