Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
2035 66.2%In testa tra 12 esiti
2035 66.2%Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto23 dic 24, 16:30 UTC11 gen 36, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsAny leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsThird-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves yes based on whether leading news networks refer to what happened as a nationalization or if that language is used by the government.
- Also resolves yes if the US government creates a project which becomes the leading AI lab in the country (at the time when it becomes the leading AI lab).
- Does not resolve yes if the relationship between the government and labs is only similar to that between the government and military contractors.
