Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 83.5%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto13 ago 23, 19:06 UTC2 gen 28, 07:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?
Manifold MarketsWill fully AI generated osu! beatmaps made by melokai.com will be used by mappers to create a starting base before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiWhat year will the first fully AI generated video game reach 10 million players? 🤖🎮👾🕹️
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiRegole
There is a lot of material out there and as such we cannot say "commonplace" as a % of all the material out there.
- We will conduct a poll where we ask users to rate how commonly they interact with AI-generated pornography and resolve this question to YES if a majority of them have a significant commonplace interaction.
- The explicit NSFW movies refer to pornographic videography
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 84% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace??
- By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: There is a lot of material out there and as such we cannot say "commonplace" as a % of all the material out there.