Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 91.1%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto14 dic 25, 19:21 UTC1 gen 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill ground beef hit __ in 2026?
LimitlessIsrael ground operation in Iran confirmed by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Majority of energy release from fission or fusion, not chemical.
- Nuclear detonation, not a reactor.
- In space counts.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-dPUQqQCtQL)
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 91% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026??
- Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Majority of energy release from fission or fusion, not chemical.